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It's A "Slopfest" Today! Rain and Snow Will Make it a Tough Commute Later Today!

A Big Weather Mess Today!

 

Today: Wet Snow and Rain; 1-3” North and West; Slushy 1”  Coastal CT and NYC.

Tonight: Snow Tapers off After Midnight; Brisk & Cold, Low: 32 with 20s in Suburbs Watch for Slick Spots!

Tomorrow: Sunny Breaks, Brisk and Chilly, High: 42 Low: 29.

 

Good Morning,

Clouds have thickened overnight… Also, a band of precipitation associated with the latest wave of low pressure to emerge in the Eastern Region is still streaking to the northeast early today…

The precipitation, which has been overrunning a fair amount of dry air near the surface in the mid-Atlantic states, has been rather slow to get started across most of southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and in South Jersey… But nonetheless, there's going to be quite a bit of dynamic cooling caused by evaporative processes as the intensity of snow (along with some pockets of rain) starts to pick up this morning…

Therefore, during the morning rush, we are not anticipating any major weather-related problems, but some places could get snowfall at a rate heavy enough to coat many non-paved surfaces before lunchtime…

The global models still show this body of low pressure moving along the border between North Carolina and Virginia today before heading out into the ocean tonight… Therefore, the focal point of the heaviest and steadiest precipitation through late this afternoon will be on areas that are within 50 or 60 miles of the Mason-Dixon Line… And, for what it’s worth, the N.A.M./W.R.F. mesoscale model has been very "bullish" on churning out more than six-tenths of an inch of liquid from an area that extends from the Lehigh Valley and central New Jersey (0.63" in Allentown, 0.69" in NYC and 0.70" in Trenton) across central and eastern Long Island (0.87" at Islip)…

If this model's quantitative precipitation forecast were to verify, it would be because this wave of low pressure will begin to intensify rapidly tonight once it reaches the ocean… This kind of explosive development frequently happens during the wintertime, when several relatively weak and fast-moving Clipper-type disturbances "get their sea legs"…

So, even though we're going to stick by our current forecasts in these places (which call for a slushy coating to an inch or so from central Jersey across Long Island, but 1-3 inches closer to Trenton and in Allentown), we should at least be mentioning the potential for some locally higher amounts seen in those aforementioned places if some heavier, wet snow were to 'crash this party' before night falls…

Temperatures today will wind up in the 30s… Even though some of the bigger cities and many coastal communities were in the low 40s between midnight and 3 a.m. — the onset of precipitation will be lowering temperatures by an average of 2-4 degrees in a relatively short period of time…

It should also be duly noted both the G.F.S. and the European models are NOT showing nearly as much liquid printing out tonight and early tonight… For example, the G.F.S. has 0.35 inches, and the European just 0.27 inches in Philadelphia… In New York City, last night's 00z run of the G.F.S. showed just a third of an inch — and the European's quantitative precipitation forecast was remarkably similar, only differing by 0.01 inches — so the N.A.M./W.R.F. will be playing to role of 'outlier' today…

All precipitation will come to an end very early tonight from west to east, if you apply the timing which most of the global models are indicating… But obviously, the idea the N.A.M./W.R.F. is supporting, showing more liquid getting dumped on parts of central New Jersey, on Long Island and in extreme southeastern New England, would also imply that this would take until midnight or 1 a.m. to finally taper off…

We should then be talking about temperatures dropping to near freezing later tonight in many of the larger cities and the 20s farther inland, because any untreated surfaces could become icy overnight, and some slush could freeze…

Behind this wave of low pressure late tonight and tomorrow, there will be a fresh injection of chilly air invading the Northeast and the mid Atlantic states… The 500-1000 millibar thickness level tomorrow is forecasted to drop below 5300 meters, which is indicative of a pretty good shot of cold air for late-November…

So, the temperature tomorrow afternoon in many of the larger cities will be in the lower 40s, but it isn't that hard to envision many areas north and west of I-95 being hard pressed to get out of the 30s…

Thursday will be offering us a repeat of tomorrow: Fairly sunny, but also quite chilly… A zone of high pressure located in eastern Canada on Friday and Saturday is expected to drift eastward… And, there are some models which are suggesting that clouds and spotty, light precipitation associated with a push of milder air spreading out across the Ohio Valley late this week may reach the Northeast over the weekend…

So, while we'll have to spread the message that daytime temperatures should eventually climb into the 50s, we must also emphasize that this milder air may be accompanied by some clouds and even a touch of rain.

 

Have a good day!!!

This post is contributed by a community member. The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Patch Media Corporation. Everyone is welcome to submit a post to Patch. If you'd like to post a blog, go here to get started.

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