UPDATED: Watch Lifted as Earl Drifts Eastward

Update, 11:10 a.m.: The National Weather Service has canceled a tropical storm watch for lower Fairfield County as Hurricane Earl's projected path has drifted even farther east.

At the same time, the NWS has upped its projected odds of a two foot storm surge on Darien's coastline to 40-50%, making minor coastal flooding of one to two feet above ground possible. Residents on the sound are urged to keep an eye on water levels, particularly as high tide rolls in around 6:18 p.m.

Update, 6:00 a.m.: The latest National Weather Service maps show little change in the wind speed probabilities for lower Fairfield County, with a 20-30% chance of tropical storm force winds now projected.

The tropical storm watch for Darien and surroundings remains in effect.

Storm surge projections show a slightly higher probability of a two foot surge or greater, now at 20-30%. High tide this evening is around 6:18 p.m.

Orginal article: The odds of a severe lashing of Darien by Hurricane Earl dropped significantly Thursday as the storm's projected path drifted eastward, but a tropical storm watch was still in effect for lower Fairfield County as of 2 a.m. Friday.

The National Weather Service forecast for Friday called for showers after 3 p.m. and winds from 15 to 18 mph, followed by a few showers and slightly heavier winds of 25 to 28 mph overnight.

Still, as of early this morning, NWS bulletin gave the county a 31 percent chance of experiencing tropical storm conditions—marked by a sustained wind speed of over 39 mph—which could come to pass if the storm tracks further west than expected. That's down from the 48 percent chance cited Thursday afternoon.

Storm surge projections issued at 11 p.m. Thursday gave Darien's coastline a 10 to 20 percent chance of a storm surge greater than two feet, "resulting in worst case flood inundation up to 1 to 2 feet above ground level somewhere within the surge zone," according to the NWS.

Tropical storm warnings were in effect to the south and east of Fairfield County, while the Massachusetts shoreline was under a hurricane warning. The storm is expected to pass about 150 miles to the east of Montauk, Long Island Friday night.

At 2 a.m., Earl was listed as a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105 mph. The storm center was situated about 450 miles south of Long Island.