Community Corner

'Minor' Coastal Flood Advisory Issued for 8 to 10 a.m.

The National Weather Service has issued a "Coastal Flood Advisory" on top of its "Hazardous Weather Outlook." The flooding is supposed to be minor, the winds gusty, the rain worst in the morning.

Update 12:00 a.m., Wednesday:

Minor coastal flooding should be expected Wednesday morning, particularly around high tide—at about 9 a.m. in Darien—the National Weather Service said.

The weather service, in a 6:44 p.m. update, issued a "Coastal Flood Advisory" for the northwestern shoreline of Long Island Sound, from Westchester County in the west to Middlesex County in the east. The advisory is in effect from 8 a.m. to 10 a.m. Wednesday. A "Hazardous Weather Outlook" forecast also remains in effect.

Find out what's happening in Darienwith free, real-time updates from Patch.

Tides should be 1 to 1.5 feet higher than normal, according to the weather service.

"A coastal flood advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore," the National Weather Service said in the statement.

Find out what's happening in Darienwith free, real-time updates from Patch.

In its "Hazardous Weather Outlook," the weather service said: "A significant storm is expected tonight [Tuesday night] into Wednesday night, with heavy rain, gusty winds and minor coastal flooding. Rainfall amounts are expected to range between one and three quarters of an inch to two and a quarter inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

"Due to many leaf-clogged storm drains, these rainfall amounts will likely lead to widespread minor urban [flooding] and poor-drainage flooding," the report said. "These rainfall amounts may also bring some small streams near bankfull. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts of 30 mph, are expected late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening, behind the storm."

The weather service's Darien-specific forecast, as of 11:57 p.m. Tuesday said that showers can be expected, mostly before 1 p.m., with northwest winds of between 9 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. About half an inch to three quarters of an inch of rain should fall on Wednesday.

On Wednesday night, there's a "slight chance of showers" before 9 p.m., according to the weather service. Winds of 13 to 20 mph should blow from the north, and they'll bring with them a chill, lowering the temperature as far down as 34 degrees. There will be a 20 percent chance of precipitation.

Thanksgiving Day itself is expected to be sunny, with a high temperature of 50 degrees and winds of 5 to 13 mph.

Update 2:27 p.m. Tuesday:

Traveling and getting to the store for those last-minute items may be more difficult if the National Weather Service's prediction of a storm comes true, but the worst of it should hit Darien Tuesday night and Wednesday morning rather than at travel times.

In the forecast specifically for Darien, the weather service says to expect a possible thunderstorm between 1 and 9 a.m. Wednesday, with rain and wind the rest of the day. Winds of 10 to 20 mph could gust as high as 30 mph. The probability of precipitation overnight is 100 percent, according to the weather service.

The weather service's "Hazardous Weather Outlook" for the New York metropolitan area and southern Connecticut remains in effect, and was updated at 5:14 a.m.

The weather service now says:

"Rainfall amounts are expected to range between one and three quarters of an inch to two and a quarter inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Due to many leaf-clogged storm drains these rainfall amounts will likely lead to widespread minor and poor-drainage flooding.

"These rainfall amounts may also bring some small streams near bankful. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph, are expected late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening behind the storm.

"Minor coastal flooding is possible around the times of high tide Wednesday morning, via the combination of high astronomical high tides and moderate easterly flow ahead of the storm. Departures of only one half to one foot are needed for coastal flooding to occur, and a surge of at least one foot is expected."

There could be as much as 1 to 2 inches of nightime rainfail from Tuesday to Wednesday, with another 3/4 of an inch to 1 inch possibly falling during the day Wednesday.

Showers could continue Wednesday night, possibly ending by 10 p.m., with a 30 percent chance of precipitation. It will be cold, with a low near 34 degrees, and windy, with a north wind of about 20 mph and gusts possibly as high as 32 degrees.

(If it were just a bit colder, it would be freezing, with ice on branches and wind putting stress on them. Got batteries?)

Here's the good news—the Darien-specific forecast for Thanksgiving and Black Friday, as of 12:27 p.m. Tuesday:

Thanksgiving Day: "Sunny, with a high near 51. North wind between 11 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph."

Thursday Night: "Mostly clear, with a low around 41."

Friday: "Sunny, with a high near 55."

 

Update 11:59 a.m. Monday:

The National Weather Service is continuing to warn of the possibility of a "significant storm" which may start Tuesday night and last into Thanksgiving.

"There is potential for a significant storm Tuesday night into Thursday, with heavy rain, gusty winds and minor coastal flooding," The weather service said in a "Hazardous Weather Outlook" statement released at 4:42 p.m. Monday. "Rainfall amounts are expected to range between 1 and 3/4 of an inch to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

"This may lead to some small stream and urban flooding. If rainfall amounts increase with later forecasts, a flood watch may be needed. North to northwest winds will gradually increase late Wednesday, with the highest gusts Wednesday night into Thursday."

"Gusts up to 35 mph are possible. Minor coastal flooding may also be possible around the times of high tide on Thursday via the combination of high astronomical high tides and moderate easterly flow ahead of the storm. Departures of only one half to one foot are needed for coastal flooding to occur, and a surge of at least one foot is expected.'

Original article Monday:

You may have a stormy visit with the relatives on Thanksgiving Day—and we don't mean tension within the family.

The National Weather Service at 4:31 a.m. issued a "Hazardous Weather Outlook" report for Tuesday through Sunday, warning of a "potential for a significant storm with heavy precipitation, strong winds and even coastal flooding [...]"

The report was issued for all of coastal Connecticut and the New York metropolitan region.

"The Wednesday morning high tide cycle in particular is shaping up to the most vulnerable," according to the report. "There is still some uncertainty with the specifics of the system at this time so monitor subsequent NWS [National Weather Service] forecasts for the latest."

Here's the weather service's forecast for Darien (as of 6:31 a.m.):

  • Thanksgiving Eve: "A chance of showers, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%."
  • Thanksgiving Day: "Mostly sunny, with a high near 50."
  • Thursday Overnight to Friday: "Mostly clear, with a low around 38."
  • Friday: "Sunny, with a high near 56."


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