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Will We Have a White Christmas in Connecticut?

Based on historical climate data, there's a pretty good chance we will. But just how good?

Photo Credit: NOAA, Climate.gov
Photo Credit: NOAA, Climate.gov
Update 3:24 p.m.:

By David Gurliacci

We don't have Darien-specific forecasts from the National Weather Service going as far into the future as Tuesday, never mind Wednesday (Christmas Day), but to get a white Christmas we'd have to get some new snow on Christmas Eve or Christmas, according to the current forecast.

Any snow on the ground now should be long since melted by Christmas Day in Darien. Predicted temperatures are well above freezing, and there's a good chance of rain to wash out any white stuff still left.

Here's the Darien forecast from Friday through Monday night, as of 2:56 p.m. Tuesday (which can always change):

  • Friday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
  • Saturday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 40 percent.
  • Saturday night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 42. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.
  • Sunday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 59. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.
  • Sunday night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.
  • Monday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
  • Monday night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.


Original story:

By Gary Jeanfaivre

It's a bit early for a forecast for Dec. 25, but it's not too soon to guess if we'll have a white Christmas!

And a map created by NOAA offers some data-backed insight into just how likely it is that there will be snow on the ground when jolly old St. Nick comes tumbling down your chimney with a bag full of presents.

While it's a pretty much foregone conclusion that there will be snow come Christmas day in places like northern Maine, upstate New York and, as the NOAA says, pretty much anywhere in Idaho, Connecticut is a bit more unpredictable.

We are in New England, after all, where the weather seems to change faster than Santa's sleigh travels on Christmas Eve.

Based on about three decades of climate data, and depending on where in the Nutmeg state you live, there appears to be between a 26% and 90% chance of a white Christmas. Yeah, that's quite a range! 

It probably comes as no surprise that those near the coast fall on the lower end of the probability range, while it's almost a sure bet for snow on Dec. 25 for the northwestern part of the state.

For the purposes of this probability map, it's worth noting that the NOAA considers a white Christmas one inch of snow on the ground at 6 a.m on Dec. 25.

What's your prediction for a white Christmas this year?

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